Archive for the ‘Trading Advice’ Category

Five tips for winning at forex trading

Thursday, December 17th, 2009

1. Exits are more important than entries

Forex traders often over think about when they should enter a trade. Huge amounts of time can be spent looking at indicators, reading news, and drawing lines on charts to try and figure out if now is the perfect time to open a trade.

Unfortunately for them they should be focusing some of that energy elsewhere.

It is true that a good entry into a trade is important. For example opening a new ‘long’ trade when the price has massively spiked is probably a bad thing, as the price will probably reverse just as quickly.

What is more important is when you exit the trade. It is at the time of exit that your trade becomes either profitable, non-profitable, or breaks even. It doesn’t matter if you were up 10% one hour ago. If you close the trade when you are down 2% then that is the final result. Being right about the price direction for the much of the trade duration gets you no profit if you closed the trade after a large reversal.

japanese currency yen

By all means spend time working out when to enter a trade – this is an important thing to do. But do also spend time thinking about when to exit. Don’t just exit in a panic. You should have a plan and then stick to it.

Which brings us onto…

2. Have your trade lifecycle planned out before you enter

Some people treat trading like a computer game, just clicking on the buy and sell buttons in the hope that they will make money. These people will probably find that their account balance goes down very quickly.

Blindly entering and exiting trades without having any real plan in place is only going to lead to one thing – a smaller bank account balance!

Before entering a trade you should know:

  1. Why you are opening this trade?
  2. How long you expect the trade to go on for?
  3. At what level would you either take profit or tighten your stops?
  4. At what price would you accept that your initial analysis was wrong and exit the trade?

Many traders find that small losses become large losses because they haven’t planned their trade in advance. They just entered the trade without thinking it through. The trade goes against them, and rather than exiting they stay in the trade hoping that it will turn around. Does this sound familiar?

If you are unable to trade in a disciplined way then you will consistently lose money to those traders who are able to trade with a disciplined methodology.

Trading with a disciplined methodology means trading with a plan. A plan means having answers to the four questions above – and then sticking to the plan!

The 4th question is about knowing when the trade has gone wrong so you can exit. The next tip covers an important aspect of planning your exit.

3. Have a stop loss in place in case it all goes wrong

As covered in my previous blog post about stop losses, a well thought out stop loss can be worth its weight in gold. It can stop you from losing large amounts of money, and enable you to ‘lock in’ your profit.

A stop loss should initially be the record of your trading plan’s worst-case exit price. Placing a physical stop loss is much better than using a ‘mental stop loss’ as the physical stop loss isn’t affected by your emotions.

As the trade progresses then you should tighten the stop loss according to your trading plan. What you should not do is decide to loosen your stop loss because you want to stay in the trade for longer.

Loosening a stop loss, or removing it altogether after it has been placed is a sign of not having control over your trading.

4. Monitor your trade appropriate to the timeframe

Unless your trade’s exit points are always determined by a stop loss and limit order that you placed your trade will require monitoring whilst it is in progress.

You should monitor your trade in a way that is appropriate to the timeframe in which you are trading.

If you are trading a small timeframe such as 1m, 2m, etc, then you obviously can’t afford to leave the screen or room for a few minutes as you might miss an important exit signal and end the trade in a loss. At very small timeframes even going to the toilet can cost you real money!

If trading longer timeframes such as 1h, 4h, 1 day, 1 week, etc, then you really shouldn’t be spending large amounts of time staring at the screen watching your trade. Doing this will turn you into a nervous wreck as the price continually moves up and down. Trading at a longer time frame should mean you don’t need to know about such micro-movements of the price.

5. Understand how much money is ‘on the table’

No matter what you are trading you should always have a thorough understanding of just how much money you have at risk.

Don’t just think about the potential profit. Think about the potential loss. Think about the worst case scenario. How much money could you lose? If you are not comfortable with the figure then you are trading with positions that are too large for you.

You should always be able to withstand all your positions going against you at the same time, no matter how unlikely it may seem. If you can handle it (note – just handle it – you don’t have to be happy about it!) then you are trading at an acceptable level.

Can trading forex make me rich?

Wednesday, December 2nd, 2009

Many people are attracted to the idea of trading in forex (or other financial instruments such as CFDs, shares, or spread betting) because they think it is an easy way to make money.

In theory it is very easy. All you have to do is to predict whether a price is going to go up or down. If you are right then you get make money. The degree to which you are right or wrong will determine how much money you make or lose.

pound sterling bank notes

It can seem all too easy when the papers or the TV news are running stories day after day about how a currency or a stock is going up or a currency or stock is going down. You may look at these stories and think that if only you had placed a bet a few days ago you’d be ‘in the money’.

Forex in particular seems to have a certain mystique about it. The major currencies are highly liquid, there is often a good amount of volatility, and the retail brokers will let you trade with large amounts of leverage.

It can also be enticing because rather than having to look at boring company reports and exotic financial ratios, you can read about how the economy is doing and make guesses on where economic policy is going to go.

So do people get rich from forex?

Of course they do. People can get rich from anything. People can get rich from winning the lottery or from betting on horse racing. That doesn’t however mean that *you* can get rich from doing these though.

Some people make a very good living from forex and win consistently week in, week out.

Some people trade forex for a few months and double or triple their money. Does this mean that they will become rich? Not necessarily. In fact if they are making money very quickly then it is extremely likely that they will lose it all even quicker.

Trying to become rich from doing a few trades in forex over a short period of time will not make you successful as pretty much the only way you can achieve very high percentage wins is by taking unmanageable risks. If you are taking unmanageable risks then the one thing which is almost certain is that you will get burnt – and probably badly. There is even a big chance that you will lose a lot more than you put in.

If you look at the forex bulletin boards then you can find many sorry accounts from people who make a large amount of money very quickly but then lost it all in a fraction of the time. Did they become rich? Even thought their account may for a few days have had $20,000 of winnings in it, they never got to enjoy the money as it was all lost too soon.

The odds are stacked against you from the start

Remember that as forex is a game of currency pairs, for one currency to go up, the opposing currency must go down. This means that where people are making money, others are losing money.

This is very different to trading in stocks and shares where it is possible for all the shares to go up in value at the same time if the economy is doing great, and for them all to go down at the same time if some major economic upset occurs.

Unfortunately the split of winners to losers is not an even 50:50. For starters for every trade that is made the broker is taking a small commission. This means that there is less money to win, than has been put into the ‘forex pot’.

On top of that professional forex traders, banks and other financial institutions will be taking an uneven percentage of the winnings.

This means that you as a beginner forex trader have the odds very much stacked against you.

As some people get rich from forex, can’t I?

I hope you can see that most people won’t be getting rich from forex. But some do – so could you be one of them?

Let’s think about this another way.

Private dentists can make lots of money. However it isn’t easy. You need to study for many years, practice all the various techniques, pass exams, and have the time and money to be able to go through all of this.

You can’t just become rich overnight by starting a dentist practice.

So why do you think it is any different for trading?

I think the reason for this perception is due to how easy it is to trade. No one (who is sane anyway) would think about having a go at doing a root canal procedure. Where would you even start! However anyone can make a trade on forex. You just have to open an account, press a few buttons, and you are making a trade!

The fact that it is easy to make a trade does not mean it is easy to consistently make winning trades every day, year after year.

To be a winning trader you will need to do large amounts of study, practice regularly, and have the right attributes to place and manage your trades.

In conclusion

Forex can indeed make you rich. It just probably won’t.

Always have a stop, and ideally a limit

Thursday, November 26th, 2009

When trading financial derivatives such as forex, CFDs should you always use a stop?

Short answer: Yes!

Long answer: Yes you should always have a stop in place – even if you think you really don’t need one.

Note that I’m only referring to financial derivatives such as forex and CFDs where you trade on margin. If you are trading or investing in instruments where you pay the full price up front (as you will usually do with shares) then this doesn’t apply to the same extent.

Leveraged price moves

A stop is very important with derivatives because when you are trading on margin any moves in the market price is magnified (often by huge multiples –1:400 leveraged forex – are you insane!). A move in the wrong direction can easily wipe you out – along with any other unrelated positions that you currently have open. In the worst case you could even end up owing your broker money – and that is not a good place to be.

forex trading screen 4

Stops are for wimps!

If you talk to people or read the trading bulletin boards there is often a certain amount of bravado about trading without a stop. Some people seem to think that stops are for wimps or are irrelevant for the strategy they are using (“I don’t need a stop because if the market moves against me I manually close out the position in time”).

Emotional decision making

Some people may be disciplined enough to close out at a sensible price but most aren’t. When the numbers on your screen start moving against you it is all to tempting to think – “I’ll stay in a bit longer – the price might go in my favour again”. The chances are that it will just keep going against you making your loss bigger. If you have a stop then you remove your emotions from exiting at the right time.

You should decide your worst exit price when you place the trade when you are thinking more rationally. You of course always have the option to exit earlier if you realise you are wrong before you stop gets hit. Just whatever you do don’t start loosening your stop. Remember the reason you set it at that value in the first place.

My strategy doesn’t require stops

Some people (for our example we’ll call our trader ‘MrNoStop’) will argue that the strategy they are trading does not require stops. They talk about never leaving the screen when a trade is open. If something happens there are always at hand – and cool headed enough – to close that trade.

So what happens then if some huge incident occurs which has a massive impact on prices. For example an unprecedented terrorist attack. Imagine that due to the incident the internet grinds to a halt – as it did on 9/11.

Suddenly MrNoStop’s trading platform stops responding, his previously fast internet connection grinds to a slow trickle. Now MrNoStop can’t exit his trade using his computer. Never mind thinks MrNoStop – I’ll telephone my broker. I always have their number to hand.

MrNoStop calls the number. It is engaged. He keeps trying. Eventually the number rings but no one answers. What is going on? Well of course MrNoStop isn’t the only one affected by the internet outage – all the broker’s customers are affected and they are now phoning the company on mass to either find out what is going on or close their positions. If only MrNoStop had used a stop.

Even if his normal strategy didn’t need a stop he still should have used an ‘emergency contingency’ stop to prevent this kind of thing from happening. It could have saved him a lot of money.

It can be good to have a limit order in place

In the title for this post I mentioned that you should always have a limit as well. Why is this?

Well let’s go back to MrNoStop’s bad situation. It is entirely possible that the terrorist attack could have had a massive positive effect on MrNoStop’s position. The price could have spiked up and then headed back down whilst MrNoStop was unable to use the internet or get though on the phone. If he’d used a limit order as well for this trade then it is possible that he may have made it out with a profit.

Some caution suggested

Maybe I’ve convinced you that always having a stop and a limit order is a good idea.

Well I’ll give you some warnings as well. If your trading platform implements stops and limits as separate tickets from the main trade then you need to be very careful to make sure you know exactly what tickets you have open! Make sure that you don’t accidentally get into trades that you didn’t mean to. If you close your trade ticket then close any associated stops and limit orders as well. Ideally you should have a blotter listing all your open tickets permanently on screen. If you have enough monitors then using one of them for account information can be worthwhile.

If your trading platform implements the stops and limits as part of the same order (and automatically cancels the stop and limit when the trade is closed) then things are much easier. This is because you can’t end up with forgotten stops and limits that are waiting to trigger when you least expect them!

Trading from the news

Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009

Making trading decisions based on live news is a popular way of trading. It is also one of the most difficult trading methods.

As a beginner trying to trade on live news will in most cases lose you money. There several factors why it is hard to win from breaking news:

1. Professional traders will have already placed their trades and moved the market as much as can be expected before you even finish reading or hearing the story.

2. It is hard to predict which way the market will move from news. Good news does not necessarily equal up and bad news does not necessarily equal down. A lot of price reaction to news is based on how the news compares to the expectation. In other words traders will have already ‘priced in’ the expected news before it is even released.

3. Around times of expected news (results updates, financial reports, etc) the market can become so volatile that you are very likely to lose by getting stopped out rather than winning anything.

If you want to be able to trade from the news you will need plenty of practice and a very good knowledge of how news affects prices.

Live news feeds can easily be obtained for free by opening a live or even a demo account from most brokers. Watch the news and how prices are affected. If you think you can correctly predict the price movements then you may be able to give news trading a go. If not then you should perhaps look to trade using a different method such as company fundamentals or technical analysis.