Posts Tagged ‘trading’

Five tips for winning at forex trading

Thursday, December 17th, 2009

1. Exits are more important than entries

Forex traders often over think about when they should enter a trade. Huge amounts of time can be spent looking at indicators, reading news, and drawing lines on charts to try and figure out if now is the perfect time to open a trade.

Unfortunately for them they should be focusing some of that energy elsewhere.

It is true that a good entry into a trade is important. For example opening a new ‘long’ trade when the price has massively spiked is probably a bad thing, as the price will probably reverse just as quickly.

What is more important is when you exit the trade. It is at the time of exit that your trade becomes either profitable, non-profitable, or breaks even. It doesn’t matter if you were up 10% one hour ago. If you close the trade when you are down 2% then that is the final result. Being right about the price direction for the much of the trade duration gets you no profit if you closed the trade after a large reversal.

japanese currency yen

By all means spend time working out when to enter a trade – this is an important thing to do. But do also spend time thinking about when to exit. Don’t just exit in a panic. You should have a plan and then stick to it.

Which brings us onto…

2. Have your trade lifecycle planned out before you enter

Some people treat trading like a computer game, just clicking on the buy and sell buttons in the hope that they will make money. These people will probably find that their account balance goes down very quickly.

Blindly entering and exiting trades without having any real plan in place is only going to lead to one thing – a smaller bank account balance!

Before entering a trade you should know:

  1. Why you are opening this trade?
  2. How long you expect the trade to go on for?
  3. At what level would you either take profit or tighten your stops?
  4. At what price would you accept that your initial analysis was wrong and exit the trade?

Many traders find that small losses become large losses because they haven’t planned their trade in advance. They just entered the trade without thinking it through. The trade goes against them, and rather than exiting they stay in the trade hoping that it will turn around. Does this sound familiar?

If you are unable to trade in a disciplined way then you will consistently lose money to those traders who are able to trade with a disciplined methodology.

Trading with a disciplined methodology means trading with a plan. A plan means having answers to the four questions above – and then sticking to the plan!

The 4th question is about knowing when the trade has gone wrong so you can exit. The next tip covers an important aspect of planning your exit.

3. Have a stop loss in place in case it all goes wrong

As covered in my previous blog post about stop losses, a well thought out stop loss can be worth its weight in gold. It can stop you from losing large amounts of money, and enable you to ‘lock in’ your profit.

A stop loss should initially be the record of your trading plan’s worst-case exit price. Placing a physical stop loss is much better than using a ‘mental stop loss’ as the physical stop loss isn’t affected by your emotions.

As the trade progresses then you should tighten the stop loss according to your trading plan. What you should not do is decide to loosen your stop loss because you want to stay in the trade for longer.

Loosening a stop loss, or removing it altogether after it has been placed is a sign of not having control over your trading.

4. Monitor your trade appropriate to the timeframe

Unless your trade’s exit points are always determined by a stop loss and limit order that you placed your trade will require monitoring whilst it is in progress.

You should monitor your trade in a way that is appropriate to the timeframe in which you are trading.

If you are trading a small timeframe such as 1m, 2m, etc, then you obviously can’t afford to leave the screen or room for a few minutes as you might miss an important exit signal and end the trade in a loss. At very small timeframes even going to the toilet can cost you real money!

If trading longer timeframes such as 1h, 4h, 1 day, 1 week, etc, then you really shouldn’t be spending large amounts of time staring at the screen watching your trade. Doing this will turn you into a nervous wreck as the price continually moves up and down. Trading at a longer time frame should mean you don’t need to know about such micro-movements of the price.

5. Understand how much money is ‘on the table’

No matter what you are trading you should always have a thorough understanding of just how much money you have at risk.

Don’t just think about the potential profit. Think about the potential loss. Think about the worst case scenario. How much money could you lose? If you are not comfortable with the figure then you are trading with positions that are too large for you.

You should always be able to withstand all your positions going against you at the same time, no matter how unlikely it may seem. If you can handle it (note – just handle it – you don’t have to be happy about it!) then you are trading at an acceptable level.

Book review roundup – Forex, Turtles, LTCM, Stock market and Randomness

Wednesday, December 9th, 2009

I’ve been reading finance and trading books faster that I’ve been able to review them! Here is a roundup of the last five finance and trading related books that I’ve read.

Currency Trading for Dummies by Mark Galant and Brian Dolan

Mark Galan and Brian Dolan both work at forex.com which is one of the largest forex retail brokers in the world.

They’ve put their knowledge into this book, packaged in the familiar ‘dummies’ style.

Even though this is marketed as a ‘dummies’ book there is a surprisingly large amount of detail in the book which makes it worth reading even if you have been trading in forex for a while.

They explain the differences between the major currencies. They talk about how the world economies interact. They provide a good slice of standard trading advice (strategies, stops, trade size, etc). And they cover other topics such as technical analysis, trading from the news, and trading do’s and don’ts.

Way of the Turtle: The Secret Methods that Turned Ordinary People into Legendary Traders by Curtis Faith

Curtis Faith was one of the original ‘Turtles’. The turtles were ordinary people who were taught how to be professional traders by Richard Dennis as part of a bet as to whether successful traders are made or just born.

Curtis gives a brief account of how he was selected to be a turtle (which to me would seem to invalidate the idea of the bet – it they wanted to see if anyone could become a successful investor then shouldn’t they have randomly selected people?). And he gives a brief account of his time as a turtle trader.

Most of the book is however about writing and testing trading systems. He covers topics such as how to do a good backtest – important to make sure you don’t bias the results. And he talks about rules that a good trading system should use.

If you are interesting in writing trading systems then this book gives plenty to think about. A quick read and very interesting.

When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenstein

When Genius Failed tells the story of the mighty rise, and then mighty fall of Long Term Capital Management.

This is the account of how ex-Salomon Brothers trader John Meriwether created LTCM and how it became one of the largest arbitrage hedge funds in the world in a few short years.

When Genius Failed continues parts of the events that were covered in the book Liar’s Poker by Michael Lewis – another recommended read.

John Meriwether managed to recruit some of his old team from Salomon Brothers and added two Nobel Prize winners – Robert Merton and Myron Scholes for good measure. To add further credibility to the fund he recruited David Mullins, the ex-Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman.

With his prestigious team in place he was able to obtain billions of dollars of capital, and get highly advantageous terms from the brokers and clients they dealt with.

They thought they were invincible, and for a time they produced amazing returns.

However things went wrong when they got too big and started diversifying into new areas. They were stung by the Asian currency crisis of 1997 and then in 1998 their downfall was cemented when Russia defaulted on its debt.

This is a fascinating read of how huge success can lead to spectacular failure. This book is a warning for anyone who takes on risk beyond his or her means.

How the Stock Market Works: A Beginner’s Guide to Investment by Michael Becket and Yvette Essen

How the Stock Market Works is a small book that does as its title suggests. It tells you in brief how the stock market works.

It tells you what shares are, how you research them, and how you can buy them.

It explains how you can read the financial pages in newspapers and how you can understand a company report. If you want quick descriptions of what all those financial rations mean then this could be the book for you.

It is not what I’d call a ‘fun or interesting’ read, however there is a lot of useful information in here.

This book is pitched towards people who are investing for the long term. It does not cover shorter term trading.

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Fooled by Randomness is a fascinating book that explains how much our lives are affected by pure randomness.

There are a lot of examples of how this relates to the trading world (Nassim is an options trader), but there are plenty of non-trading examples as well.

Fooled by Randomness flits from one topic to another at speed and is one of those books that makes you think.

One of the most important messages that he tries to get across to traders is that just because you win many trades don’t assume you are a good trader. It could just be you are benefiting from random luck. Sample size is all important – winning trades over a number of months or even years may not be enough to tell you anything about your trading skills.

The author is clearly very intelligent and has put together a highly readable and interesting work, but sometimes he does come across as a bit arrogant – he could do with toning some of his personal insults down.

Nether the less – a fun read – and I’ve already got his follow up book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, on order.

Always have a stop, and ideally a limit

Thursday, November 26th, 2009

When trading financial derivatives such as forex, CFDs should you always use a stop?

Short answer: Yes!

Long answer: Yes you should always have a stop in place – even if you think you really don’t need one.

Note that I’m only referring to financial derivatives such as forex and CFDs where you trade on margin. If you are trading or investing in instruments where you pay the full price up front (as you will usually do with shares) then this doesn’t apply to the same extent.

Leveraged price moves

A stop is very important with derivatives because when you are trading on margin any moves in the market price is magnified (often by huge multiples –1:400 leveraged forex – are you insane!). A move in the wrong direction can easily wipe you out – along with any other unrelated positions that you currently have open. In the worst case you could even end up owing your broker money – and that is not a good place to be.

forex trading screen 4

Stops are for wimps!

If you talk to people or read the trading bulletin boards there is often a certain amount of bravado about trading without a stop. Some people seem to think that stops are for wimps or are irrelevant for the strategy they are using (“I don’t need a stop because if the market moves against me I manually close out the position in time”).

Emotional decision making

Some people may be disciplined enough to close out at a sensible price but most aren’t. When the numbers on your screen start moving against you it is all to tempting to think – “I’ll stay in a bit longer – the price might go in my favour again”. The chances are that it will just keep going against you making your loss bigger. If you have a stop then you remove your emotions from exiting at the right time.

You should decide your worst exit price when you place the trade when you are thinking more rationally. You of course always have the option to exit earlier if you realise you are wrong before you stop gets hit. Just whatever you do don’t start loosening your stop. Remember the reason you set it at that value in the first place.

My strategy doesn’t require stops

Some people (for our example we’ll call our trader ‘MrNoStop’) will argue that the strategy they are trading does not require stops. They talk about never leaving the screen when a trade is open. If something happens there are always at hand – and cool headed enough – to close that trade.

So what happens then if some huge incident occurs which has a massive impact on prices. For example an unprecedented terrorist attack. Imagine that due to the incident the internet grinds to a halt – as it did on 9/11.

Suddenly MrNoStop’s trading platform stops responding, his previously fast internet connection grinds to a slow trickle. Now MrNoStop can’t exit his trade using his computer. Never mind thinks MrNoStop – I’ll telephone my broker. I always have their number to hand.

MrNoStop calls the number. It is engaged. He keeps trying. Eventually the number rings but no one answers. What is going on? Well of course MrNoStop isn’t the only one affected by the internet outage – all the broker’s customers are affected and they are now phoning the company on mass to either find out what is going on or close their positions. If only MrNoStop had used a stop.

Even if his normal strategy didn’t need a stop he still should have used an ‘emergency contingency’ stop to prevent this kind of thing from happening. It could have saved him a lot of money.

It can be good to have a limit order in place

In the title for this post I mentioned that you should always have a limit as well. Why is this?

Well let’s go back to MrNoStop’s bad situation. It is entirely possible that the terrorist attack could have had a massive positive effect on MrNoStop’s position. The price could have spiked up and then headed back down whilst MrNoStop was unable to use the internet or get though on the phone. If he’d used a limit order as well for this trade then it is possible that he may have made it out with a profit.

Some caution suggested

Maybe I’ve convinced you that always having a stop and a limit order is a good idea.

Well I’ll give you some warnings as well. If your trading platform implements stops and limits as separate tickets from the main trade then you need to be very careful to make sure you know exactly what tickets you have open! Make sure that you don’t accidentally get into trades that you didn’t mean to. If you close your trade ticket then close any associated stops and limit orders as well. Ideally you should have a blotter listing all your open tickets permanently on screen. If you have enough monitors then using one of them for account information can be worthwhile.

If your trading platform implements the stops and limits as part of the same order (and automatically cancels the stop and limit when the trade is closed) then things are much easier. This is because you can’t end up with forgotten stops and limits that are waiting to trigger when you least expect them!

The Naked Trader by Robbie Burns – book review

Thursday, September 3rd, 2009

Robbie Burns quit his job in 2001 to become a full time trader in the stock market. He has proved to be a very successful trader building up a substantial sum in his ISA pension.

In this very light hearted book he explains how he goes about picking the right shares to invest in. He discusses how to understand company finances, how to choose when to buy and when to sell.

He talks about how to identify problems in annual reports by using his traffic light system, and there is a brief introduction to more advanced topics such as using Level 2 and direct market access.

His strategies are suitable for trading over a medium term period of weeks or months rather than shorter time frames.

There are some fun chapter with reader’s letters and a section on big mistakes that traders have made.

The book is written in a very chatty style. In between the ‘meat’ are references to eating toast and having a nap. The style will appeal to people who like the easy to read nature of the ‘dummies’ series of book.

This is a quick read, but it is highly recommended – especially if you are new to trading and want a simple introduction to playing in the stock market.